By Ashley Mitchell, Law Student and Medical Cannabis Dispensary Manager
Massachusetts voters will officially decide this November whether to dismantle much of the adult-use marijuana system they approved a decade ago.
Based on current polling, the repeal measure appears more likely to fail than pass. A February Bay State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found that nearly two-thirds of likely Massachusetts voters opposed repealing the state’s adult-use marijuana law, including 48% who strongly opposed it. Just one-fifth supported the proposal.
Those are not close numbers. They suggest that most Massachusetts residents do not regret legalization and are not interested in returning to a system without licensed recreational marijuana stores.
That should not be surprising.
Voters approved legalization in 2016 with 53.6% support. Since regulated sales began in November 2018, residents have had years to observe the system firsthand. They are no longer being asked to vote on promises, projections or hypothetical outcomes. They know what legal marijuana looks like in their communities. They know what it means to see the cannabis market brought aboveground, taken out of the hands of criminals and taxed. They know what it means to see police resources no longer wasted on cannabis arrests. They know what it means to have a legally available and much safer alternative to alcohol. Polling suggests that most prefer the existing system to the prohibition that came before.
The November proposal would repeal the laws allowing licensed adult-use marijuana sales and eliminate home cultivation by adults. Limited possession would remain legal, as would the state’s medical marijuana program. The result would therefore be an unusual system in which adults could legally possess marijuana but would have far fewer lawful ways to obtain it.
Supporters of repeal argue that legalization has created public health and safety concerns that justify reversing course. Opponents argue that eliminating licensed stores would cost jobs and tax revenue while shifting consumer demand toward unlicensed sellers. Those competing claims will receive considerably more attention now that the measure has formally qualified for the ballot.
Fortunately, an organized opposition campaign is already in place. Stop the Repeal, paid for by the Committee to Protect Cannabis Regulation, launched in June with support from marijuana businesses, public health professionals, local officials and advocates. Chaired by Ryan Dominguez, the campaign is working to preserve the regulated market by highlighting the jobs, tax revenue and consumer protections that could be lost if the measure passes.
The polling advantage held by repeal opponents is substantial, but polling is not an election result. Ballot measures can be affected by confusing language, uneven campaign spending, turnout differences and voters who do not begin paying attention until shortly before Election Day.
There is also a natural risk of complacency whenever one side appears comfortably ahead. Many Massachusetts residents may reasonably assume that legalization is settled law and that an effort to repeal it has little chance of succeeding. But the initiative has already cleared every procedural obstacle required to reach the ballot, including two rounds of signature gathering and a challenge before the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court.
That is why the cannabis community should rally around Stop the Repeal and the Committee to Protect Cannabis Regulation rather than assuming favorable polling will translate automatically into victory. Businesses, consumers, patients and advocates all have a role to play in ensuring voters understand what the proposal would actually do and what Massachusetts could lose if it passes.
Regardless of the outcome, the final margin will matter beyond Massachusetts.
Opponents of marijuana legalization have long argued that voters eventually regret adopting regulated markets once they experience them in practice. Massachusetts now offers a direct test of that claim. Residents are being asked whether they want to retain a system they have lived with for nearly eight years or eliminate most of it.
A narrow result would show that the state remains deeply divided. A wide margin would indicate that public acceptance of legalization has strengthened since the original 2016 vote. Either outcome would be studied by lawmakers, campaign organizations and advocates in other states considering marijuana policy changes.
This is what makes the Massachusetts vote more significant than a typical dispute over regulatory details. It is not simply a decision about tax rates, licensing structures or product rules. It is a statewide reconsideration of whether adults should continue having access to a licensed marijuana market at all.
Current public sentiment indicates that repeal faces a steep uphill battle. Most residents appear prepared to keep legalization in place, and the proposal begins the campaign far behind.
But elections are decided by the people who participate, not by polling conducted months beforehand. The cannabis community should do everything it can to help deliver a decisive result, not only to eliminate any chance that repeal slips through because of complacency, but to send an unmistakable message that Massachusetts voters continue to stand behind the marijuana system they approved in 2016.
