The States Most Likely to Legalize Recreational Marijuana Within the Next 12 Months

Momentum for marijuana legalization continues to build across the U.S., with several states nearing the point of legalizing recreational cannabis.

Currently, 24 states have already embraced the legalization of recreational marijuana, but many others are making significant progress toward joining them. Some states have active legislative discussions, while others have voters gearing up to vote for legalization this November.

Considering recent legislative moves, growing political backing, and key ballot proposals, here are 10 states most likely to legalize recreational marijuana in the near future.

Florida

Florida voters appear on track to approve Amendment 3 this November, with multiple recent polls showing support to be above the 60% threshold required for constitutional amendments to be enacted into law. The proposal would amend the state constitution to allow recreational marijuana use for adults 21 and over, with the possession limit set at three ounces of dried flower and five grams of marijuana concentrates.

The campaign supporting Amendment 3, Smart & Safe Florida, has raised over $100 million, making it the most well-funded marijuana initiative in U.S. history by a factor of four.


South Dakota

In South Dakota, Measure 29 marks the third attempt in four years by South Dakotans for Better Marijuana Laws (SDBML) to legalize recreational cannabis. If passed, the measure would permit adults 21 and older to possess up to one ounce of marijuana and cultivate up to three plants for personal use. It also establishes a regulatory framework for commercial sales, including licensing and taxation designed to generate state revenue.

In 2020, SDBML succeeded in passing Amendment A to legalize recreational marijuana, only to have the state Supreme Court overturn it. A subsequent initiative made it to the 2022 ballot but failed, largely due to low voter turnout in a midterm election.

With 2024 being a presidential election year and rising public support for legalization, advocates are optimistic that Measure 29 will pass and avoid legal obstacles.


North Dakota

North Dakota activists have successfully placed a marijuana legalization initiative, Measure 5, on the November ballot. The proposal would legalize possession of up to one ounce of marijuana, four grams of concentrates, and up to 1,500 milligrams of cannabinoid products for adults 21 and older. Additionally, the initiative would establish a licensed and regulated legal marijuana market.

Polling on Measure 5 has been lacking, meaning it’s anyone’s guess whether or not voters will pass the proposal into law.


New Hampshire

A recent effort to legalize marijuana in New Hampshire passed the state Senate but narrowly failed in the House, where it was rejected by a 178-173 vote. With just three additional votes, the bill could have moved forward to Governor Chris Sununu, who has expressed his willingness to sign it into law. Advocates for legalization are preparing to reintroduce the measure in 2025, hopeful that the slim margin can be overcome.

A poll conducted earlier this year showed strong public support, with 65% of New Hampshire voters in favor of legalizing marijuana, reflecting growing momentum behind the issue.


Hawaii

In Hawaii, Senate Bill 3335, which would have legalized marijuana for those 21+, successfully passed through the Senate and three House committees earlier this year, but ultimately fell short in the full House, losing by a narrow 25-23 vote. The proposed legislation sought to establish the Hawaii Cannabis Authority and Cannabis Control Board to regulate the industry, along with implementing a 14% tax on recreational marijuana and a 4% tax on medical marijuana.

A survey conducted last year indicated that 52% of adults in Hawaii support legalization, while 31% oppose it. Advocates are determined to revive the bill in 2025, hoping to build on the existing support and push it through the legislative process.


Pennsylvania

In Pennsylvania, State Representative Amen Brown (D) introduced House Bill 2210 in April, with bipartisan backing. The bill would allow those 21 and over to possess up to 30 grams of marijuana, which could be purchased at licensed dispensaries and marijuana retail outlets. It also allows medical marijuana patients to grow up to five plants, though this provision does not extend to recreational users. The bill did not advance before the June 30th budget deadline, but proponents plan to reintroduce it in 2025 with the support of the governor.


Arkansas

An initiative appearing on the November ballot in Arkansas seeks to broaden the state’s medical marijuana program and potentially legalize recreational use if marijuana is removed from the federal controlled substances list. The measure would allow medical marijuana patients to grow their own plants and remove the list of qualifying conditions, leaving it to physicians’ discretion. Should the federal government deschedule marijuana, recreational possession of up to one ounce would become legal. Currently, federal legislation to deschedule marijuana has garnered significant support, with 95 sponsors in the House and 18 in the Senate.


Wisconsin

In October a bicameral coalition of 36 state lawmakers filed Senate Bill 486 and Assembly Bill 506 to legalize marijuana for everyone 21 and older. The companion bills would legalize the personal possession of up to five ounces of marijuana, and the personal cultivation of up to six marijuana plants. Licensed marijuana stores would be authorized to sell marijuana and marijuana products, with a 15% tax placed on marijuana sales.

Although the legislation is not currently supported by the majority of Republicans, who control the state’s legislature, it is supported by Governor Tony Evers, who included marijuana legalization provisions in his proposed state budget this year. With elections this November, the dynamics of the state legislature could shift, potentially driving more support for legalization as we head into 2025.


North Carolina

In the recent legislative session, Senator Graig Meyer pushed for a marijuana legalization bill along with six cosponsors. The measure, which proponents plan to refile next year with additional support, would legalize marijuana for those 21 and older, allowing for the possession of up to two ounces of dried marijuana, 15 grams of marijuana concentrates (hash, oil, etc.) and up to 2,000 mg in THC worth of edibles, while allowing for the personal cultivation of up to six plants.

Last month US Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) announced his support for legalizing marijuana, becoming one of the first GOP senators to do so and adding weight to legalization efforts.

On September 7 the Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians opened a recreational marijuana store for everyone 21 and older. Despite fears, no patrons of the store have been arrested in the 19 days it’s been open.


West Virginia

In January, Delegate Sean Hornbuckle put forward House Bill 4483, which was later sent to the House Health and Human Resources Committee. The bill seeks to allow adults 21 and older to legally possess up to one ounce of marijuana and marijuana tinctures, while specifically prohibiting concentrates such as hash, oil, and wax. The proposed law also calls for the establishment of a regulated marijuana retail system under the authority of the Department of Commerce.

Despite not advancing during this year’s legislative session, Hornbuckle plans to reintroduce the bill in 2025, expressing confidence that it will gain significantly more support.

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