Colorado marijuana wholesale prices continue to fall as the number of licensed cultivators shrinks, according to a new state economic forecast.
Wholesale prices for marijuana bud were 10.6% lower year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026, while the number of licensed cultivators was down by more than 14% in the second quarter, according to the September Economic and Revenue Forecast released by the Colorado General Assembly’s nonpartisan Legislative Council Staff.
Officials said persistently low wholesale prices are contributing both to lower marijuana excise tax revenue and declining sales volume as cultivators leave the market because prices are too low to sustain their businesses.
The decline has accelerated since the state’s June forecast. At that time, wholesale bud prices were 7.3% lower year-over-year and the number of licensed cultivators had fallen 12.1%.
Overall marijuana tax revenue is expected to total approximately $218.1 million in fiscal year 2026-27, down 0.9% from a preliminary $220.1 million in the prior fiscal year. Revenue is then projected to increase 1.2% to $220.7 million in fiscal year 2027-28 and another 3.6% to $228.7 million the following year.
The state attributes the broader revenue decline to lower marijuana prices, reduced demand as additional states have legalized marijuana and expanded access to intoxicating hemp products. Daily marijuana plant counts are also declining, while the number of recreational retail licenses appears to have stabilized. Medical marijuana establishment licenses, however, continue to fall.
Colorado officials expect marijuana revenue to begin stabilizing during the latter half of fiscal year 2026-27. The forecast points in part to the federal restrictions on most intoxicating hemp products scheduled to take effect in December 2026, which officials expect will provide a modest boost to regulated marijuana tax collections. Longer term, the state expects modest increases in consumption and prices to eventually reverse the recent revenue decline.
