Federal restrictions on hemp-derived THC beverages could result in an estimated $112 million to $146 million in annual losses to consumers, according to a new study published today in the peer-reviewed Journal of Wine Economics.
The study, conducted by researchers at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Purdue University and Michigan State University, estimates that eliminating hemp-derived THC beverages from the legal marketplace would reduce consumer welfare by approximately $3.32 per person for each purchasing decision.
Researchers Aaron J. Staples, Valerie Kilders and Vincenzina Caputo examined the potential economic consequences of federal legislation that will sharply restrict intoxicating hemp products beginning in December.
The researchers used data from a previously published experiment involving 2,010 U.S. adults who were asked to select alcohol and marijuana products they would expect to consume during a weekend evening with friends. Participants completed 10 purchasing exercises involving different products and prices.
Using those responses, the researchers calculated how consumers’ economic welfare would change if hemp-derived THC beverages were removed from the available options.
The analysis found an average welfare reduction of $3.32 per person per purchasing occasion, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from $3.04 to $3.71.
To estimate the nationwide impact, researchers used 2024 market figures showing that hemp-derived THC beverages generated between $760 million and $988 million in annual sales.
Using an average price of $22.50 for a six-pack of THC beverages, they estimated annual sales equivalent to approximately 33.8 million to 43.9 million six-packs.
Applying the calculated consumer welfare loss produced an estimated annual nationwide impact ranging from $112.2 million to $145.9 million.
The estimated losses represent the economic value consumers place on having access to these products, rather than a direct reduction in sales or tax revenue.
The researchers emphasized that the calculations are based on modeled consumer preferences and market assumptions, rather than observed losses following an implemented restriction.
The findings come as federal lawmakers continue debating the future of intoxicating hemp products.
Legislation signed in November 2025 established a significantly narrower federal definition of hemp, including a restriction limiting finished hemp-derived cannabinoid products to 0.4 milligrams of combined total THC and other THC-like cannabinoids per container.
A subsequent federal funding law delayed the implementation of that per-container restriction until December 11, 2026. Certain other hemp restrictions remain scheduled to begin November 12.
The new limits would effectively eliminate much of the existing hemp-derived THC beverage market, where individual drinks commonly contain between 2 and 10 milligrams of THC.
The study’s authors noted that their economic calculations do not include possible impacts on hemp producers, beverage manufacturers or other businesses. They also do not account for potential public health benefits or costs associated with restricting THC products.
Several bills have been introduced in Congress proposing alternatives, including measures that would establish federal regulatory and taxation systems for hemp-derived beverages rather than broadly prohibiting them.
Among them is the Beverage Regulatory Parity Act, introduced in August, which would establish a framework for qualifying hemp-derived beverages containing up to 5 milligrams of THC per serving and impose a federal excise tax of 8 cents per milligram of THC.
