The map of legal marijuana states could expand considerably over the next two years, with several states positioned to reconsider adult-use legalization through legislatures, ballot initiatives or changes in political leadership.
Pennsylvania and Hawaii remain among the clearest opportunities for legislative action, while Florida could again give voters the final say through a proposed 2028 constitutional amendment. Other states, including New Hampshire, Wisconsin and North Carolina, could see their prospects change substantially as new legislative sessions begin.
Although legalization efforts have repeatedly stalled in many of these states, several are entering 2027 with circumstances that could make the next two years particularly consequential.
Here are the states most likely to legalize adult-use marijuana over the next couple years.
Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania remains one of the strongest candidates to become the next state to legalize recreational marijuana.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has included adult-use legalization in each of his annual budget proposals since taking office. In 2025, the House approved a legalization bill for the first time in state history, although its state-operated retail model was rejected by the Republican-controlled Senate.
A separate bipartisan proposal, Senate Bill 120, was introduced by Republican State Senator Dan Laughlin and Democratic State Senator Sharif Street. The measure would establish a privately operated and state-regulated market, allow possession and use by those 21 and older and create a Cannabis Control Board.
The measure has remained stalled in the Senate Law and Justice Committee, with lawmakers filing a resolution in June to force further consideration.
The November gubernatorial election could be decisive. Shapiro continues to support legalization, while Republican challenger Stacy Garrity has said she would veto an adult-use marijuana bill.
Pennsylvania is also increasingly isolated. New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware and Ohio all allow recreational marijuana sales, leaving Pennsylvania residents within relatively short driving distance of legal markets in nearly every direction.
If Shapiro wins another term and the legislative balance becomes even slightly more favorable, Pennsylvania could be one of the best-positioned states to legalize in 2027.
Hawaii
Hawaii has come close to legalization several times and already has many of the political ingredients normally associated with successful marijuana reform.
Hawaii Governor Josh Green supports adult-use legalization and has said he would sign a bill if lawmakers send one to his desk. Democrats also maintain overwhelming control of both chambers of the legislature.
In 2025, a comprehensive legalization measure passed the Senate and multiple House committees before being blocked in the House Finance Committee. Lawmakers returned in 2026 with narrower proposals, but those efforts also failed to reach the governor.
The November election could change that dynamic. All 51 House seats and roughly half of the Senate are being contested, creating the possibility that committee memberships and legislative leadership will become more favorable to legalization.
Hawaii does not necessarily need a major partisan realignment. Supporters may need only a handful of different legislators, a change in committee leadership or a revised regulatory proposal capable of avoiding the obstacles that stopped previous bills.
That makes Hawaii one of the strongest possibilities for legislative legalization in 2027 or 2028.
New Hampshire
New Hampshire is the only state in New England that has not legalized recreational marijuana, despite repeated approval from the state House and strong public support.
In January, the House voted 208 to 135 to approve House Bill 186, which would have legalized possession and created a regulated commercial market. The Senate later tabled the proposal in a 15 to 9 vote.
The November gubernatorial election could have a major impact on whether the issue advances in 2027.
Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte, who won renomination in September, opposes recreational marijuana legalization. Democratic nominee Cinde Warmington supports legalizing, regulating and taxing marijuana.
Every seat in the New Hampshire Legislature is also on the November ballot.
Because New Hampshire does not allow citizen-initiated statewide ballot measures, legalization will ultimately need approval from lawmakers and the governor. A change in either the Senate or governor’s office could therefore dramatically improve the chances of passage.
The state’s isolation within New England also creates increasing pressure. Residents can already purchase marijuana legally in neighboring Massachusetts, Maine and Vermont.
Florida
Florida is arguably the strongest candidate for voter-approved legalization in 2028.
Amendment 3 received nearly 56% of the vote in November 2024. That would have been enough to legalize marijuana in almost any other initiative state, but Florida requires constitutional amendments to receive at least 60% support.
Smart & Safe Florida attempted to return with a revised measure for 2026, submitting roughly 1.4 million petition signatures. State officials ultimately determined that the campaign did not have enough valid signatures to qualify.
The Florida Division of Elections now lists the group’s Adult Personal Use of Marijuana initiative as active for the 2028 general election.
That gives supporters another opportunity, but significant obstacles remain. Organizers must rebuild their petition campaign, and any amendment that reaches voters will once again need 60% support.
Still, Florida has already demonstrated that a clear majority of voters support legalization. With several years to organize and a presidential-election electorate expected in 2028, Florida remains one of the most plausible states to legalize through the initiative process.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s prospects may depend heavily on what happens in November.
Democratic Governor Tony Evers, a longtime legalization supporter, is not seeking reelection. The race to replace him is between Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley and Republican U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany.
Crowley has supported marijuana legalization, while Tiffany supports establishing a medical marijuana program but has opposed full recreational legalization.
The legislature has repeatedly blocked adult-use proposals. Democratic lawmakers introduced comprehensive legalization legislation in 2026, but it failed to advance before lawmakers adjourned.
Wisconsin is also increasingly surrounded by legal markets. Recreational marijuana is legal in Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota, while residents continue traveling across state lines and spending money that could otherwise remain in Wisconsin.
A Democratic gubernatorial victory combined with legislative gains could make legalization substantially more viable in 2027. Without significant changes in the legislature, however, even a supportive governor would continue facing considerable resistance.
North Carolina
North Carolina remains a more difficult legislative environment than Pennsylvania or Hawaii, but its legalization prospects have improved considerably.
North Carolina Governor Josh Stein created the North Carolina Advisory Council on Cannabis in 2025 and directed it to develop recommendations for regulating cannabis products and establishing a safe, legal adult market.
The council has continued meeting throughout 2026, with committees examining regulation, public safety, revenue and other components of a potential statewide system.
Stein has said the state should establish a safe and well-regulated adult market, giving legalization advocates an ally in the governor’s office.
The primary obstacle remains the Republican-controlled General Assembly, where leaders have shown little enthusiasm for recreational legalization.
However, North Carolina already has legal adult-use marijuana sales on Eastern Band of Cherokee Indians land, while intoxicating hemp products remain widely available throughout the rest of the state. Those circumstances have increased pressure on policymakers to develop a comprehensive regulatory system.
North Carolina is unlikely to move as quickly as Pennsylvania or Hawaii, but it is increasingly plausible that the issue could receive serious legislative consideration during the next couple years.
North Dakota
North Dakota voters have rejected recreational marijuana legalization three times, but the most recent election showed the state may not be far from approving it.
A 2024 initiative received about 47.5% support. The proposal would have legalized possession, home cultivation and licensed commercial sales for adults 21 and older.
Voters also rejected legalization proposals in 2018 and 2022, so another campaign would face an obvious history of defeat.
However, North Dakota allows citizen initiatives, meaning supporters do not need permission from lawmakers or the governor to bring the issue directly to voters.
A better-funded campaign focused on regulation, tax revenue, local control and restrictions on public consumption could potentially close the remaining gap in 2028.
North Dakota remains less likely than Florida to approve legalization through the ballot, but its relatively accessible initiative process keeps it firmly in the conversation.
South Dakota
South Dakota is unique among the remaining states because its voters have already legalized recreational marijuana once.
Amendment A received 54.2% support in November 2020. The South Dakota Supreme Court later struck down the measure following a lawsuit backed by officials working under then-South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem.
Supporters returned with legalization initiatives in 2022 and 2024, but voters rejected both.
Those defeats make another campaign difficult, but the 2020 result still demonstrates that legalization can receive majority support in the state.
South Dakota also has an established medical marijuana system, meaning voters now have several years of experience with regulated marijuana cultivation and sales.
No recreational legalization measure qualified for the 2026 ballot. That makes 2028 the earliest realistic opportunity for another statewide vote.
A successful campaign would likely need stronger funding, a carefully structured commercial system and a strategy for rebuilding the coalition that approved legalization in 2020.
Arkansas
Arkansas is a longer shot than most states on this list, but its initiative process gives supporters a possible route around a resistant legislature and governor.
Voters rejected a recreational legalization proposal in 2022 with roughly 44% support. That measure drew opposition not only from legalization opponents but also from some marijuana reform advocates who objected to its licensing and regulatory structure.
Organizers later collected enough signatures for a 2024 medical marijuana expansion amendment, but votes on the proposal were ultimately not counted following litigation over the initiative process.
Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders opposes expanding marijuana legalization, making legislative passage extremely unlikely in the near term.
A new initiative campaign could nevertheless emerge for 2028. To have a realistic chance, supporters would likely need a broader coalition and a proposal addressing concerns over licensing competition, expungement and the structure of the commercial market.
For now, Arkansas remains an outside possibility rather than one of the frontrunners.
Taken together, Pennsylvania and Hawaii appear to have the clearest legislative paths, while New Hampshire and Wisconsin could rise quickly depending on the results of the November elections. Florida stands out as the strongest candidate for ballot-driven legalization in 2028, with North Carolina gradually becoming a more serious contender.
If even a few of those states move forward, the current total of 24 adult-use states could look considerably different by the end of 2028.
